ExxonMobil's Outlook for Energy

The Outlook for Energy -
A View to 2030

Energy - in all its forms - is critical to economic growth,
development, and social welfare. Meeting the projected
increase in energy demand to support growing
populations and expanding economies poses many
challenges, and will require an integrated set of solutions.

To help us prepare for the future energy marketplace,
each year ExxonMobil develops The Outlook for Energy,
a broad, in-depth look at the long-term global trends for
energy demand and supply, and their impact on carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions. The results of this comprehensive
study provide a foundation for ExxonMobil's business
planning and are shared publicly to help build under-
standing of the world's energy needs and challenges.

The Link Between Economic Growth and Energy
Energy and economic growth have long been entwined: The
availability of energy supports long-term economic and social
progress; economic growth drives increased energy usage.

Despite current economic conditions, global economic
output, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
is expected to increase by close to 3 percent on average
annually through 2030.

Importantly the global economy is becoming more energy
efficient. From 1980 to 2005, "energy intensity" - the amount
of energy used per unit of economic output - improved by
1 percent per year on average. Going forward to 2030, we
expect the rate of improvement will be 70-percent faster
than in the past.

Even with significant energy intensity improvements, global
energy demand is expected to increase approximately
35 percent from 2005 to 2030. The majority of new energy
demand will come from Asia Pacific, reflecting strong
economic growth. Oil, natural gas, and coal will remain the
predominant energy sources through 2030, but renewable
sources such as wind, solar, and biofuels will increase rapidly.

Transportation Demand Driven by Developing Economies
Transportation provides perhaps the most visible use of
energy. Moving people and goods requires tremendous
amounts of energy worldwide, and that will not change
in the foreseeable future. In fact energy demand for
transportation is expected to increase by 40 percent from
2005 to 2030.

The global growth in transportation demand will be met
primarily by oil, which is expected to provide almost
95 percent of all transportation fuel in 2030.

Electricity Demand Increases Need for Power Generation
As economies grow and access increases, global demand
for electricity is projected to increase 75 percent by 2030
versus 2005.

Consistent with this projection, energy for power generation
is expected to remain the largest and fastest growing
segment of global demand, driven in large part by strong
growth in Asia Pacific.

Meeting the expected worldwide growth in power demand
will require a diverse set of energy sources. Today coal is
dominant and will retain the largest share globally through
2030; however, natural gas, nuclear, and renewables will all
gain market share.

Worldwide Liquids Demand
Liquid fuels derived from oil, condensates, and natural gas
liquids provide the largest share of energy supply today, due
to their affordability, wide availability, and ease of transport.
By 2030, global demand for liquids is expected to grow to
approximately 108 million oil-equivalent barrels per day or
close to 30 percent more than in 2005.

This demand will be met by a wide variety of sources.
Conventional non-OPEC crude and condensate production
is expected to remain relatively flat through 2030. However,
growth is expected from a number of supply sources,
including oil sands, natural gas liquids, and biofuels, as
well as crude oil from OPEC countries. While the world's
resource base is sufficient to meet projected demand,
access to resources and timely investments will remain
critical to meeting global needs.

LNG Import Market Will Grow
Increases in natural gas demand in major markets will
require new sources of supply. Unconventional natural gas
resources (e.g., tight gas, shale gas, coalbed methane) will
contribute more significantly to supplies over time, enabled
by technology advances. In addition new technologies
are spurring development of a global market for liquefied
natural gas (LNG), which is expected to more than triple in
volume from 2005 to 2030 and help meet growing demand
in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific.

Global Energy in Perspective
Viewed globally, it is clear that the world's energy mix is
highly diverse. Today, oil, natural gas and coal provide
approximately 80 percent of world energy. By 2030, oil
will remain the largest source of energy supply at close to
35 percent. Natural gas will grow the fastest of the fossil
fuels and will overtake coal as the second-largest energy
source. Nuclear power will increase significantly, surpassing
coal in terms of absolute growth and becoming the fourth-
largest fuel source. Hydro and geothermal will also grow,
but they are limited by the availability of natural sites. Wind,
solar, and biofuels will increase about 9 percent per year on
average, the highest growth rate of all fuels.

In developing this Outlook, we assume significant efficiency
improvements over time. Compared to 2005 energy-intensity
levels, these improvements translate to energy savings of
approximately 170 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by
2030 - about double the corresponding growth in demand.
Achieving these gains will be critical to helping meet global
energy challenges.

Growing Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions
The outlook for energy-related CO2 emissions is linked
directly to projections of the amount and type of energy
Looking globally we do not expect CO2 emissions
to peak by 2030. While the United States and other
developed countries will reduce emissions, the economic
growth and associated energy needs of developing
countries will drive global CO2 levels higher. This highlights
the challenge ahead for the world - how to continue to
provide the energy necessary to bring billions of people
up the economic ladder while mitigating the growth of
CO2 emissions.

Conclusion
This Outlook makes clear that the world's energy challenges
are formidable. We believe that meeting these global energy
challenges requires an integrated set of solutions that includes:

* Moderating demand through new technologies that improve
energy efficiency in our vehicles, homes, and businesses

* Expanding access to all economically viable energy
sources - oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and alternative
and renewable sources such as wind, solar, and biofuels.

* Mitigating the risks of climate change through technologies
that advance energy efficiency, enable widespread use of
renewables, and capture and store CO2 emissions.

Looking to 2030 and beyond, we realize that the scale of our
global challenge is enormous, but so too, is our commitment
to succeed and our capacity to innovate. ExxonMobil is
confident that by pursuing this integrated set of solutions -
while working with governments to create reliable policy and
investment environments for these solutions to thrive - the
world can achieve both energy and environmental security to
support growing economic prosperity.

-- ExxonMobil 2008 Summary Annual Report

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[6/18/10 from my XOM file] An interesting chart (on the front cover fold-out of the 2009 Annual Report) on how energy sources continue to evolve.  In 1850, it was mostly wood.  In 1900, it was mostly coal.  In 1950 it was about half coal and half oil with some natural gas.  In 2000, coal had decreased, oil was nearly the same, natural gas had slightly increased, and nuclear was making an impact.  As time goes on to 2030, Exxon sees natural gas increasing slightly, oil decreasing slightly, coal decreasing with nuclear taking up much of the slack, hydroelectric remaining a small impact, and renewables increasing but still a small percentage.

The chart is also here.