car makers strike deal with California

WASHINGTON — Four automakers from three continents have struck a deal with California to produce more fuel-efficient cars for their US fleets in coming years, undercutting one of the Trump administration’s most aggressive climate policy rollbacks.

The compromise between the California Air Resources Board and Ford, Honda, Volkswagen, and BMW of North America came after weeks of secret negotiations and could shape future US vehicle production, even as White House officials aim to relax gas mileage standards for the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs.

Mary Nichols, California’s top air pollution regulator, said in an interview Wednesday that she sees the agreement as a potential ‘‘olive branch’’ to the Trump administration and hopes it joins the deal, which she said gives automakers flexibility in meeting emissions goals without the ‘‘massive backsliding’’ contained in the White House proposal.

In a joint statement, the four automakers said their decision to hash out a deal with California was driven by a need for predictability, as well as a desire to reduce compliance costs, keep vehicles affordable for customers, and be good environmental stewards.

The deal comes as the Trump administration is working to finalize a huge regulatory rollback that would freeze mileage requirements for cars and light trucks next fall at about 37 miles per gallon on average, rather than raising them over time to about 51 mpg for 2025 models — the level to which the industry and government agreed during the Obama administration. The proposal would also revoke California’s long-standing authority to set its own rules under the Clean Air Act, a practice the federal government has sanctioned for decades.

The White House argues that more lenient standards would lower the sticker price of vehicles and encourage Americans to buy newer, safer cars. But California has vowed to enforce stricter requirements to lower greenhouse gas emissions, and the auto industry itself has implored the Trump administration to try to find common ground with California.

Trump officials quickly rejected the idea of embracing the new deal as a blueprint for federal mileage goals, and said it was pressing ahead with its rollback.

‘‘The federal government, not a single state, should set this standard,’’ said White House spokesman Judd Deere in an e-mail.

Environmental Protection Agency spokesman Michael Abboud said of the agreement, ‘‘This voluntary framework is a PR stunt that does nothing to further the one national standard that will provide certainty and relief for American consumers.’’

And officials from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which is co-writing federal tailpipe standards, noted in a statement that the administration’s proposal doesn’t prevent manufacturers from building more efficient vehicles if they so choose.

Under the new accord, the four companies, which represent roughly 30 percent of the US auto market, have agreed to produce fleets averaging nearly 50 mpg by model year 2026. That’s just one year later than the target set under the Obama administration, which argued that requiring more-fuel-efficient vehicles would improve public health, combat climate change, and save consumers money at the gas pump without compromising safety.

The share of the US auto market affected by the new terms could grow significantly if other automakers also join the deal. Last month, the Canadian government also pledged to align mileage requirements for its auto market with California rather than the Trump administration.

18 months (and counting)

Do you remember the good old days when we had "12 years to save the planet"?

Now it seems, there's a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other environmental challenges.

Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030.

But today, observers recognise that the decisive, political steps to enable the cuts in carbon to take place will have to happen before the end of next year.

The idea that 2020 is a firm deadline was eloquently addressed by one of the world's top climate scientists, speaking back in 2017.

"The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can't be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute.

The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for climate change is becoming clearer all the time.

"I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently.

One of the understated headlines in last year's IPCC report was that global emissions of carbon dioxide must peak by 2020 to keep the planet below 1.5C.

Current plans are nowhere near strong enough to keep temperatures below the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading towards 3C of heating by 2100 not 1.5.

As countries usually scope out their plans over five and 10 year timeframes, if the 45% carbon cut target by 2030 is to be met then the plans really need to be on the table by the end of 2020.

What are the steps?

The first major hurdle will be the special climate summit called by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, which will be held in New York on 23 September.

Mr Guterres has been clear that he only wants countries to come to the UN if they can make significant offers to improve their national carbon cutting plans.

This will be followed by COP25 in Santiago, Chile, where the most important achievement will likely be keeping the process moving forward.

But the really big moment will most likely be in the UK at COP26, which takes place at the end of 2020.

The UK government believes it can use the opportunity of COP26, in a post-Brexit world, to show that Britain can build the political will for progress, in the same way the French used their diplomatic muscle to make the Paris deal happen.

"If we succeed in our bid (to host COP26) then we will ensure we build on the Paris agreement and reflect the scientific evidence accumulating now that we need to go further and faster," said Environment Secretary Michael Gove, in what may have been his last major speech in the job.

"And we need at COP26 to ensure other countries are serious about their obligations and that means leading by example. Together we must take all the steps necessary to restrict global warming to at least 1.5C."