Friday, October 26, 2012

creating a photo slideshow on DVD

Billy wants to show photos on a big screen TV at his office.

At first, he was going to use a computer and hook it up to his TV.  But then his computer at home was giving him problems, so he took it home.

And now the plan is to burn the pictures to a DVD and show it on the TV with a DVD player.

Sounds good, but I've never done it (nor has he).

He bought this Magix software from Amazon and got an error message.

But now I see free software that should be able to do the job (lmgtfy).

Some likely candidates are:

Smilebox (free software)

Kizoa Slideshow Maker (where you create the project online)

Windows Media Center

Windows DVD Maker (included with Vista and Windows 7)

And here's an intro from HP.

Now to actually try it.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Climate of Doubt

PBS Frontline: Climate of Doubt

featuring Coral Davenport (with a named like Coral..)

***

and the unbiased response

Frontline repeatedly implied that there is an overwhelming consensus among climate scientists that our CO2 emissions are driving us to a global climate catastrophe. They cited 97% as the fraction of the climate science community who agreed with climate alarmism.

That number is easily dismissed. It comes from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois. Strangely, the researchers chose to eliminate almost all the scientists from the survey and so ended up with only 77 people, 75 of whom, or 97%, thought humans contributed to climate change.

***

which mirrors Larry Bell

[so what is it?  like 90% instead?]

***

here's what skepticalscience wrote.

We should also consider official scientific bodies and what they think about climate change. There are no national or major scientific institutions anywhere in the world that dispute the theory of anthropogenic climate change. Not one.

In the field of climate science, the consensus is unequivocal: human activities are causing climate change.

***

Now, from Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Minnesota Institute on the Environment, comes a fresh study on the question of scientific consensus. Its findings offer something new: scientists appear actually to underestimate the extent to which they, as a group, agree on key questions related to climate change science.

***

Wikipedia article on the scientific opinion on climate change

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

iPad Mini

Steve Jobs said it would never happen. Yet a smaller Apple just fell from the iPad tree.

Apple execs have finally unveiled the company's long-awaited iPad mini -- something Jobs once declared the company would never do. The new $329 product is meant to compete with smaller, 7-inch tablets from companies like Google and Amazon that are nipping at the tech giant's heals.

"You knew there'd be something called Mini in this presentation," joked vice president of marketing Phil Schiller before revealing the hotly anticipated gadget. Apple has sold 84 million iPads since their debut in April 2010, he said.

"So this iPad mini is just 7.2 mm thick. That's about a quarter thinner than the fourth-generation iPad. Thinner than a pencil," CEO Tim Cook told the crowd earlier. The new product has the same resolution as the larger display 1,024 × 768, but it should look sharper thanks to the smaller screen.

It's the iconic hardware that Apple is known for, of course, and the company wasted no time unveiling it. Phil Schiller, senior vice president of worldwide marketing for the company, joined Cook on stage to tout the company's victories in that arena, as the pair noted that Macs are the number one desktop and notebook in the country.

To continue that momentum, Schiller revealed a new 13-inch MacBook Pro that he said is 20 percent thinner than the previous generation, and a pound lighter. The new laptop features a 2.5-GHz Intel processor, a high-resolution Retina display with over 4 million pixels, and a solid-state drive rather than a spinning disk. It will start at $1,700, he said.

Schiller also described updates to the company's Mac Mini and iMacs, the later drawing oohs and aahs from the assembled crowd. The new iMac, which starts at $1,299, is a razor-thin all in one computer that starts shipping next month, he said.

"There is an entire computer in here," he said, despite the product's incredibly tiny form.

"We sold more products in the June quarter than any PC manufacturer sold in their entire PC line," Cook said as he returned to the stage.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Bye Bye PCs

When Microsoft introduces its long-awaited Windows 8 operating system Friday, it will be the first Windows rollout to face real competition since, well, forever. Today, smartphones and tablets do almost all of the day-to-day tasks a PC does -- including sending e-mail, surfing the Web, and editing photos -- and do some of them better. Already, tech investors, long accustomed to a lift from Windows, are primed for disappointment.

At the same time, big data -- massive data centers that can marshall tremendous computing power -- is upending the traditional network, pushing information-processing into the palm of your hand. And it's happening faster than almost anybody expected, as last week's spooky earnings surprises at Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) and chip makers Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) made clear.

So who are the winners and losers in a post-PC world? Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea) certainly stand to gain, and EMC (EMC) will be a winner in the big-data world. Obvious losers include PC makers Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL). Intel and Microsoft, which straddle both the PC and post-PC worlds, are tougher calls. Their high dividends and cheap valuations make them hard for investors to rule out.

On-demand computing, which is to say, the cloud, will benefit Amazon.com (AMZN), and Salesforce.com (CRM). And arms merchants to cloud providers, like storage giant EMC (EMC), also will prosper.

SEPARATING GOOD INVESTMENT IDEAS from bad, however, isn't as easy as picking winners in the marketplace. Companies such as Salesforce and web-hosting outfit Rackspace Holding (RAX) may be essential to this sea-change, but their valuations are scarily high. Salesforce, at about $149, fetches 99 times fiscal 2013 earnings estimates, while Rackspace, which operates massive data centers for cloud services, trades at 86 times. Are their opportunities really that much greater than those at Apple, which fetches 11 times estimates, or at Microsoft, which trades at 10 times?

Probably not, argues Barron's Roundtable member Fred Hickey, publisher of the High-Tech Strategist. "Companies like Rackspace and Salesforce are classic story stocks," he says, "and it is very dangerous to own such stocks when everything they might produce in the way of earnings and cash flow is already priced in." Also in that boat, he argues, is Amazon.com, which stands to prosper if its Kindle Fire can elbow its way into the tablet computer market. But at 104 times earnings, that's a big if.

IT'S A WHOLE NEW WORLD FOR Microsoft. Smartphones were still relatively primitive when Windows 7 was introduced in 2009, and tablet computers didn't even exist. Now, as the charts "Game On!" illustrate, they threaten the PC hegemony. Neither Microsoft, HP, nor Dell is a force in smartphones or tablets.

"It is becoming a mainstream idea that your PC is not the center of everything," says Kevin Landis of Firsthand Funds, who has owned Microsoft, off and on, for years -- and is nervous every time he does.

That said, Microsoft is putting its vast resources behind its Windows 8 operating system for phones and tablets. And at 12 a.m. Friday, it will begin selling a tablet computer of its own, known as the Surface, setting up a midnight madness event. So we'll know soon how the excitement stacks up against iPhone and iPad madness.

On Thursday, Microsoft reported flat year-over-year revenue, led by a 9% drop in the division that contains Windows. The numbers included pre-sales for Windows 8. Excluding them, sales in the Windows unit dropped by a third. At nine times next year's expected profits, Microsoft shares are very inexpensive, considering the strengths of the company's other businesses, including server software, databases, and collaboration. But unless Microsoft can show that Surface and all the other Win 8 devices will turn the tide for that part of the division, its stock will continue to suffer. Microsoft closed the week at $28.64 and yields 3.2%.

THE INEXORABLE SHIFT AWAY from PCs is causing havoc for manufacturers. This year, worldwide sales of personal computers are projected to drop about 2%, to 357 million units, according to IDC's David Daoud. In dollars, they will fall 5% to 6%. More telling: Smartphone sales are expected to surge 42% this year, to $294 billion, topping PC sales for the first time. And sales of tablets are expected to rocket 65%, to $59 billion.

To Dan Niles of Alpha One Capital Partners, this sounds very familiar. He worked in the 1980s at minicomputer titan Digital Equipment Corp., whose founder, Ken Olsen, famously said there was no reason anyone would want a computer in his home. DEC was later acquired by Compaq Computer and vanished without a trace.

Smartphones and tablets are similarly underestimated now, Niles asserts. For that reason, he's inclined to avoid Intel and Microsoft. "Go ahead, gamble they can make the leap to this new world," he says. "I don't want that bet."

As the PC market fades, Intel is trying to maintain its lead in server chips, while becoming a force in phones and tablets. Last week, it reported that PC growth had slowed last quarter and this quarter to half its usual seasonal rate, disappointing investors waiting for spiffy new "ultrabook" laptops to make a splash. At the same time, CEO Paul Otellini said Intel's new Atom chip would be in 20 tablets this quarter, including the Surface.

The problem is that Intel has more to lose from the PC decline than to gain from selling cheaper chips for tablets and smartphones. The company's shares, which closed the week at $21.27, trade at nine times next year's estimates and pay a rich 4% dividend. While Intel may never be a growth company again, it probably won't hurt investors who own it.

Apple, trading at 9.1 times this year's projected profits, after backing out $117 billion in cash and investments, is priced quite reasonably, given its expected 24% growth in revenue this year. Even as one of the world's dominant phone makers, it has just 7% of the mobile-phone market, according to Gartner, giving it ample room to grow.

Samsung, the dominant global phone producer, shows no sign of stopping its gains at the expense of smaller companies. Its stock is also undemanding, at 7.5 times next year's earnings' estimate. The Korean-listed shares traded Friday at 1.302 million won, about $1,200; its unsponsored American depositary receipts are thinly traded.

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POST-PC world is the cloud. On route 101 in Silicon Valley, Wal-Mart has posted signs reading "WALMART DATA," offering jobs to engineers in its San Bruno labs. That's a sign of just how mainstream it's become for companies to sift through enormous amounts of information.

Wal-Mart's quest, and others like it, are changing the very nature of data, says Paul Saffo, a tech pundit who runs Discern Analytics, a big-data outfit in Silicon Valley.

Big data ultimately will redefine the database. To track customer information and behavior in real time, and to respond to it instantaneously, companies are turning increasingly to databases that put information in the random-access memory chips of a computer, rather than on the disk drive, as has been done traditionally. Database-giant Oracle (ORCL) is fending off new competition from SAP (SAP), which sells just such an "in-memory" database. And start-ups also are targeting the database market. Among them: MemSQL, a Silicon Valley company started by former Facebook engineers.

For the moment, Oracle's traditional databases are benefiting from the surge, but that could change by this time next year.

Google is a player par excellence in big data. Sales of smartphones using the Android OS don't make the company any money upfront—it doesn't charge for use of the system -- but ultimately, all the activity on those phones is sending back to Google real-time data from the world that makes its searches more valuable to advertisers.

Google CEO Larry Page said on last week's call that the company was on pace to generate $8 billion a year from mobile devices. And some day, Google's self-driving car will bring the company real-time readings of traffic conditions -- another way to feed Google's rapacious appetite for big data.

And what of Facebook (FB), which, like Google, is building its own computers from scratch to redesign the data center? Facebook defenders take a typical Silicon Valley attitude, trusting it will try a number of ways to monetize the increasing use of mobile technology and eventually hit on a solution. Firsthand's Landis, who's owned the stock since before its IPO and confesses that he's sitting on a loss, says, "Even if they hit one out of 10 products right, that's enough." 

Amazon.com is one of the most striking players in the post-PC world. Its Kindle Fire, starting at $159, is a truncated tablet -- little more than a means for users to feed at the Amazon trough. Two weeks ago, CEO Jeff Bezos told the BBC that the company breaks even on the hardware, preferring to "make money when people use our devices, not when people buy our devices."

Amazon has overcome many doubters over the years, but with a triple-digit P/E ratio, there's still a lot of doubt to overcome.

EMC is a less expensive way to play the cloud, says Ben Reitzes of Barclays Capital. "EMC's focus is on the hybrid cloud," he says. It has products that help enterprises shift parts of their data-processing into the cloud, reaping greater efficiencies, while maintaining full control of their critical data.

AS THIS FATEFUL YEAR for the personal computer grinds on, some investors probably will bottom-fish for stocks. One that might be worth a look is Seagate Technology (STX), which trades at four times next year's earnings, less than one times sales, and pays a 4.6% dividend. Seagate has a chance to shift from the PC world to the post-PC world, by selling devices for the cloud and tablets. Unlike HP, which has a similarly cheap valuation, Seagate has a strategy for this and the means to implement it.

A factor that's important for all technology stocks is what happens after November's elections. Any progress on tax policy could unleash massive amounts of cash held by tech companies overseas. That, says Paul Wick, portfolio manager of Columbia Seligman Communications & Information fund, could lead to increased share buybacks and higher dividends. It could also encourage mergers and acquisitions, putting some beaten-down names in play.

But unless that happens, expect PC names to struggle as they adjust to a world in which smartphones and tablets are increasingly seen by consumers as capable of providing most, if not all, of the computing power they need.

In short, the traditional economic engine of the personal computer has broken down, and it's unlikely to get back in gear.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Windows 8

[10/20/12] The release of Microsoft’s Windows 8 operating system is a week away, and consumers are in for a shock.

Windows, used in one form or another for a generation, is getting a completely different look that will force users to learn new ways to get things done.

Microsoft is making a radical break with the past to stay relevant in a world where smartphones and tablets have eroded the three-decade dominance of the personal computer.

Windows 8 is supposed to tie together Microsoft’s PC, tablet and phone software with one look. But judging by the reactions of some people who have tried the PC version, it’s a move that risks confusing and alienating customers.

Tony Roos, an American missionary in Paris, installed a free preview version of Windows 8 on his aging laptop to see if Microsoft’s new operating system would make the PC faster and more responsive. It didn’t, he said, and he quickly learned that working with the new software requires tossing out a lot of what he knows about Windows.

“It was very difficult to get used to,” he said. “I have an 8-year-old and a 10-year-old, and they never got used to it. They were like, `We’re just going to use Mom’s computer.”’

Windows 8 is the biggest revision of Microsoft Corp.’s operating system since it introduced Windows 95 amid great fanfare 17 years ago. Ultimately, Windows grew into a $14 billion a year business and helped make former Chief Executive Bill Gates the richest man in the world for a time.

Now, due to smartphones and tablets, the personal computer industry is slumping. Computer companies are desperate for something that will get sales growing again. PC sales are expected to shrink this year for the first time since 2001, according to IHS iSuppli, a market research firm.

The question is whether the new version, which can be run on tablets and smartphones, along with the traditional PC, can satisfy the needs of both types of users.

*** [9/25/13, article from 12/22/12 retrevo email]

Windows 8 just takes some getting used to (then it's not too bad)

Thursday, October 18, 2012

tablets up, PCs down (not good for Windows 8)

NEW YORK » While Microsoft is touting next week's launch of Windows 8 as the savior of the computer industry, PC makers and analysts are increasingly skeptical that the new operating system will lure consumers away from tablets and smartphones.

Even Intel Corp., which makes the processors at the heart of 80 percent of personal computers, doubts that Windows 8 will have a big impact on sales. CEO Paul Otellini said this week that he's "very excited" about the new operating system but expects the usual holiday bounce in PC sales to be half of what it usually is. Otellini suggested that PC makers are being cautious about building big stocks of Windows 8 PCs.

"We haven't had a chance to really judge how consumers will embrace this in the PC space or not," Otellini said on a conference call with reporters and analysts.

Research firm IHS iSuppli expects the industry to ship 349 million PCs this year, down 1 percent from last year's all-time high. Although small, the decline would be the first since 2001.

In the U.S., a mature market where consumers are gobbling up tablets, PC sales have already been declining for two years.

Meanwhile, Apple has been doubling sales of iPad tablets every year since the first model was introduced in 2010. In the April to June period, Apple shipped 17 million iPads, while Hewlett-Packard Co., then the world's largest maker of PCs, shipped 13.6 million PCs, according to Gartner analysts.

Smartphones, which were a niche market before the 2007 launch of the iPhone, outsold PCs last year, even though PC sales were at a record high. Some 488 million smartphones were sold in 2011, according to research firm Canalys.

The PC market is still big, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer told the Seattle Times last month, "and Windows 8 will propel that volume."

Windows 8 is a response to the popularity of tablets. It tosses out many Windows conventions in favor of a radical new look that's designed to be easy to use on a touch screen. With Windows 8, PC makers are releasing a slew of laptops that double as tablets, either with detachable screens or with screens that fold down over the keyboard [don't they already do that?].

But Citigroup analyst Joe Yoo is even more pessimistic than Intel that Windows 8 will spur a turnaround in sales of desktop and laptop computers. It could turn out to be a "non-event" in terms of getting people to buy PCs, he said.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

eMachines monitor resolution

My old 17" CRT monitor (CTX that I got from someone, Jeff?) finally went out.  It had been getting a vertical line in the middle of the screen for a while, but I always managed to get it working again by turning off the monitor or pulling out the power plug for a while and plugging it back in.

The problem would occur when I would switch off the monitor to conserve electricity and then when I tried it switch it back on the vertical line would occur.

This time the line occurred while the monitor was on.  After a few attempts to get it back, I figured it was time to let it go.

I hooked up the eMachines monitor that I used in the past (from Evelyn?).  This is a widescreen monitor that measures about 18" diagonally (16" horizontally and about 9-1/4" vertically).  But the resolution looked off.

The resolution for the old CRT I believe was 1024x768 which is a 4:3 ratio.  This other monitor I suppose should use a 16x9 ratio.  So I went to the display properties and chose the highest resolution which is 1366x768 which is pretty close to 16x9 (1.7786458 to 1.7777777).  It looks OK, but the contrast seems a little more harsh than the CRT.  I guess it's an digital picture vs. an analog picture.

The control panel detects it as a generic PnP monitor.  But the Nvidia control panel identifies the monitor as E182H.

Googling that brings up this cnet page which says it's 18.5" monitor with a max resolution of 1366x768.  OK, I guess that's the resolution to set it at.

I still don't like how the colors looks on this monitor.  Let's try some different color schemes.

(Using Vista) Control Panel.  Personalization.  Window Color and Appearance.  open classic appearance properties for more color options.  I see it's set a Windows Aero.

OK, tried that.  Tried changing the brightness and contrast from the monitor controls.  Still don't like it.  I think it's because the white background is too bright.

Tried changed the windows background color to light gray, but it's still white.  I think it might be determined by the browser.

OK, on firefox I changed the settings.  Went to options, options, content, colors, background, and uncheck allow pages to choose their own colors.  Looks less harsh, but the google buttons now look strange (just words surrounded by boxes).

[10/11/12] Changing the background color of some of the documents in google docs (or whatever they call it now).  OK, that's a little better.